How import intelligence works
Where every number comes from, how the score is built, how fresh the data is, and what is judgment rather than data.
The opportunity score
Six components, each scaled from 0 to 1, weighted into a 0–100 score.
- Steadiness: monthly swing (standard deviation ÷ mean) of US imports over the last 24 months.
- Margin: gross margin of US merchant wholesalers in the matching industry (2022 Economic Census).
- Size: US imports in the last 12 months, log scale.
- Growth: last 12 months vs the 12 before.
- Switching: points of share China lost since 2023.
- Tariff room: duty actually paid on the latest 3 months of imports.
Data freshness
Collection checks for a new Census month every day. It runs in small, recorded steps, and failures are retried, never hidden.
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Sources
| Feed | Source | Refresh |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly imports by product (world and China) | US Census Bureau International Trade API, imports by HS | Monthly, about 5 weeks after month end |
| Imports by product and origin | Same API, year-to-date values for the 20 largest sourcing countries | Monthly |
| Duty actually paid | Same API: calculated duty ÷ imports for consumption | Monthly |
| Wholesale gross margin | US Census Bureau 2022 Economic Census, merchant wholesalers by NAICS | Each Economic Census |
| Buyer signals | Reddit API, posts in US business communities (titles and links only) | Weekly, when switched on |
Judgment, not data
"Who buys", "Fit" (good, caution or avoid for a small importer) and "Premium" are ImportWorkspace analyst tags per HS chapter or heading, kept in a versioned reference file. They decide which categories reach the premium list, and they are labelled wherever they appear.
Buyer signals
Posts are found with supplier-related searches in named communities. Each post is matched to a product topic by keywords. Only titles, links, dates and counts are stored, never usernames. Signals indicate interest, not market size.
Known limits
- Four-digit HS headings are broad; narrow to a 10-digit code with the HTS finder before sourcing.
- Wholesale margin is an industry average, not the margin on one product.
- Duty paid is an average across all origins; your rate depends on origin, exact code and current rules.
- Trade data shows what was imported, not unmet demand. Pair it with buyer conversations.